Declining fertility and its implications: a comparative study of Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra in the post-independence period

Abstract

Contrary to Malthus fear, many countries in the world now face a situation that can be said to be an anti-thesis of what he proposed; that is a situation of low fertility leading to issues to lower population growth and its concomitant problems. Countries with larger population have generally favoured government-driven population control policies, on the belief that individuals left to their own would go the Malthusian way. This is currently a widely debated issue, as now, faced with the prospect of a declining population, even advanced countries are in favour of governmental guidance. This study does not argue the case for a particular population level but questions whether there is a causal relationship between population policy and demographic change. Birth rates have declined across all states of India, albeit in varying degrees. This study argues that fertility rates have been declining steadily in India, and would have continued the declining momentum without a targeted population policy as individuals were making their fertility decisions and had reduced the number of children they wanted. These were purely private decisions taken without considering the government policies in this regard. The study attempts to understand the complexities that are unique to the Indian ethos that could and would influence fertility decisions of households using secondary sources of data. Given the disparate nature of India s socio-economic background, the study also focuses on the need to have a disaggregated study at the district level, to arrive at meaningful policy alternatives. Two states, Tamilnadu and Maharashtra, are taken as representative states and the demographic scenarios in both are compared. Their apparent likeness and their different or delayed responses makes for interesting study, and therefore, the two states were chosen for a comparative study.