Comparative Study of Apsim Wheat and Ceres Wheat Model for Precision Management of Wheat Crop and Mitigation of the Adverse Impact of Climate Change under Tarai Region of Uttarakhand

Abstract

Climate change impacts on wheat production has widespread and national ramifications for food and nutritional security. A field study was conducted during rabi2017-18 and 2018-19 at agricultural farm of G.B. Pant University forcomparative study of APSIM-Wheat and CERES-Wheat model for precision management of wheat crop and mitigation of adverse impact of climate change Tarai region of Uttarakhand. APSIM-Wheat and CERES-Wheat, which simulates yieldhas been calibrated for winter wheat using experimental dataof 2017-18 crop season.The calibration was performed against anthesis (DAS), physiological maturity (DAS), grain and biomass yield for the three treatments of sowing dates (viz.,15th November, 25th November and 05th December) , three levels of irrigation (number of irrigation five, four and three) for two wheat varieties (HD-2967 and PBW-502).The calibrated APSIM-Wheat and CERES-Wheat model were then applied to validate anthesis (DAS), physiological maturity (DAS), yield and biomass for rabi season of 2018-19 for the three treatments of sowing dates (viz., 15th November, 25th November and 05th December) , three levels of irrigation (number of irrigation five, four and three) for two wheat varieties (HD-2967 and PBW-502). The simulated output by the CERES-Wheat model found closer to the experimental field data therefore this model was applied for other two objectives. In this study sowing time and irrigation (number of irrigations) were optimised to get economical yield. A sowing window starting from last week of October (25th October) to the first week of December (06th December) was selected for optimization of sowing date. Crop sown in the first week of November produced highest grain yield followed by sowing in second and third week in the rabi season of 2017-18 and 2018-19.The optimum number of irrigations for wheat was also evaluated by CERES-Wheat model through projected irrigation scenarios. Present study revealed that in this region three irrigations are sufficient for optimum yield. This model also applied to predict the wheat biomass and yield in the year 2030, 2050 and 2080 and found that biomass and yield will be decreased in the future years due to increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall. In-situ moisture conservation, rainwater harvesting and recycling, and efficient irrigation water use are all important adaptation strategies to combat the adverse effect of climate change. Breeders will need to develop some short-duration varieties in the coming years by changing the genetic makeup of existing varieties. Early flowering (photo- and thermo-insensitivity), early maturity, and higher productivity should be characteristics of the new varieties. Identification of crops and varieties/ hybrids with high water use efficiency, adapted to temperature extremes and high concentration of CO2 is needed in this climate change scenario. newline