Statistical Model for annual trends and magnitude of climatic variability across locations from different Agro climatic zones of Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

Climate change is a statistical variation in the properties of the climate system that include changes in global temperature, precipitation, etc. The Monthly precipitation data was downloaded from the website of the Indian Meteorological Department through website from 1991 to 2020 for the period. Eleven Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh, annual average rainfall 1033.74 (mm), Z value -0.14 and Q value -0.308 mm slightly decreasing trend with non-significant observed. South-west monsoon average rainfall 937.48(mm) with Z value -0.36 and Q value -0.823 mm magnitude decreasing trend. 49 district and 30 years (1991-2020) using principal component analysis rainfall variability first principal component analysis is Eigenvalue 985105.50 and the variance explain 33.23 highest %, PC10- 90.09 % explain variance of annual rainfall. Annual average 70 rainy days, Z value is -0.11 and Q value -0.037 per day, magnitude decreasing non-significant trend. Study district 27 years effected by the sever 11 drought and 16 moderate droughts, study 1994, 1995 and 2008 year sever, and moderate drought affected by 36 and 26 district highest large area effected by drought, and year 2001, 2018 and 2000 range between 10-16 district effected by moderate and severe drought years. Only 1993, 2011 and 2012 years do not sever and moderate drought study. Maximum annual average temperature 32.07 0C, Z value is -1.39 and Q value is -0.012 0C per year magnitude decreasing trend. Minimum temperature 19.38 0C,Z value is 2.46 and Q value is 0.022 0C magnitude per year 5 % level of significant increasing. newline