Forecasting Energy Vectors in a Residential Microgrid for Degradation Analysis of Storage Battery with Demand Response Participation

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources in the local energy newlinecommunity, rooftop solar PV and BESS are emerging as eco-friendly generating resources newlinein the modern-day microgrid. With the advent of new technologies and consistent drop in newlinethe cost of solar PV, the residential energy communities are inclining towards a sustainable newlinegrid. These modern-day residential microgrids are furnished with rooftop solar PV, BESS, newlineIoT-enabled smart appliances, HEMS, and robust communication layers. Maintaining the newlinesecurity and privacy of these infrastructures is challenging and needs robust solutions for newlinetheir reliable operation. newlineThe aforementioned issues can be addressed via precise planning studies, efficient newlineDSM functionality, and a powerful security assessment. This study presents the newlinedegradation analysis of BESS in a residential microgrid fed with rooftop solar PV with newlineactive participation in an incentive-based DR program. The AMIs at residential premises newlineact as a gateway for communicating appliance-level energy consumption to the SP. A huge newlinegap in energy supply and energy demand forces the SP to impose high electricity tariffs newlineon the customers, causing an economic burden. To reduce supply-demand mismatch, there newlineis a need for accurate forecasting models, both for generation and consumption. The newlineplanning study conducted in this work shows the integration of solar insolation forecasting newlineand load demand forecasting of residential prosumers. A weather classification-based newlinemethodology is adopted for predicting the day-ahead load demand and solar insolation newlineusing the ML model. A novel concept of CC is used for enhancing forecasting accuracy. newlineFurthermore, for the calculation of solar PV power generation, a modified clearness index newlineas a function of CC is proposed. newlinePrecise planning of generation and consumption leads to the lower capital cost of newlineBESS, however, the stochastic nature of solar PV generation, the uncertain behavior of newlineresidential energy consumers, and seasonal variations lead