Climate Change Impact Assessment of Groundnut under CMIP5 Projections Using Crop Simulation Models

Abstract

ABSTRACT newlineClimate Change Impact Assessment of Groundnut under CMIP5 newlineProjections Using Crop Simulation Models newlineBy newlineS. ARUL PRASAD newlineI.D. No. 2016801001 newlineDegree : Doctor of Philosophy (Agriculture) in Meteorology newlineChairperson : Dr. N. Maragatham newlineProfessor (Agronomy) newlineAgro Climate Research Centre newlineTamil Nadu Agricultural University newlineCoimbatore- 641003 newline newline2019 newlineThe research titled Climate Change Impact Assessment of Groundnut under newlineCMIP5 Projections Using Crop Simulation Models study was carried out in Agro Climate newlineResearch Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore during 2017-2019. In newlinethis study the first time MIROC5 was used to study the impact assessment on groundnut newlinecrop over Tamil Nadu. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used for newlineimpact assessment based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The output of Global Climate newlinemodel and Regional Climate model was used for simulation of Climate change impact on newlinegroundnut using crop simulation models. The future scenario data of maximum newlinetemperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were generated by climate models to base newlineperiod (1971-2000) near century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end century newline(2071-2099) and the output of MIROC5 were utilized for DSSAT. newlineThe maximum temperature for Tamil Nadu is likely to increase in the range of 0.2 newlineto 2.2°C and 0.2 to 3.4°C while for the minimum temperature increase in the range of 0.2 newlineto 2.4°C and 0.1 to 4.0°C for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 1971 to 2099 respectively. The newlinerate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of maximum temperature for newlineTamil Nadu. The seasonal variations of maximum and minimum temperature were newlineprojected higher, during South West Monsoon compared to North East Monsoon under the newlinescenario of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. newlineThe RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 explicated an increasing trend in rainfall for the decadal newlineperiod (1971-80 to 2091-2099). But the magnitude of rainfall rise found to be high in RCP newline8.5 as compared with RCP 4.5. On comparing the monsoon seasons, a noticea