Stochastic Modelling and Queueing Analysis in Healthcare

Abstract

The power of mathematical modelling lies in its application in real-world scenarios that newlinelead to data-driven decision making. In the design and delivery of healthcare systems, patient newlineoutcomes are an essential aspect. Mathematical and stochastic models have seen their newlineapplications in Healthcare System design, System operations and analysis to enhance newlineoperational efficiency. Adopting the various levels of analytics and assessment of Key newlinePerformance Indicators will improve patient care quality, timeliness, and effectiveness. This newlineresearch study demonstrates how modelling can be used in healthcare processes to provide newlinevaluable insights into healthcare delivery. Limited research studies are leveraging real-time newlinedata in the Indian healthcare setting, owing to a lack of data availability, data management in newlinean unstructured manner in a large number of hospitals and clinics, accessibility, and privacy newlineconcerns. newlineThis study examines healthcare processes by modelling specific functional units of newlineselected hospital s Emergency Department (ED), Inpatient Departments (IPD), and Outpatient newlineDepartment (OPD). Forecasts of patient arrivals are obtained in the respective units. Short-term newlineforecasts facilitate redeploying resources optimally and providing on-time services to patients. newlinePatient flow with predictions of arrivals, discharges, Bed Occupancy Rate, Inpatient Length of newlineStay, doctor s utilisation time, patient waiting time are among the various metrics evaluated newlineacross the ED, IPD and OPD to aid insights on the patient flow management. newlineThe real-time ED data included 7748 patient arrivals for three months across the three newlineworking shifts of the ED. Inpatient data was collected from two hospitals. Inpatient data for newlinethe first multispeciality hospital had the date and time stamps of admission, discharge for three newlinemonths again from September to November 2018, including a total of 908 patient admissions newlineand discharges. From the second hospital, data involving 518 admissions and discharges were newlinecollected. OPD da