Fuzzy cognitive map and fuzzy petri net approach to causal and risk analysis

Abstract

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) is a soft computing technique used in decision making problems and complex systems. FCMs are the methodologies which depends entirely on knowledge and experience of expert members in the corresponding field. FCM combines the concept of fuzzy logic and Cognitive maps, provides more accurate and acceptable results compared to conventional cognitive maps. FCM is a directed graph consist of nodes that are connected by the weighted arcs. Nodes are the conceptual factor incorporated with the model and the arcs are the causal relationship among the factors. Expert members or decision makers in the corresponding field determines the causal entities and designs the FCM for the model considered. The strength of the causal relationship between the concepts are defined using fuzzy quantities. Due to the flexibility and adaptability to real time problems, FCM has numerous applications in various area of research for prediction and decision making. newlinePlithogenic sets, a generalization of crisp, fuzzy, intuitionistic fuzzy and neutrosophic sets. Plithogenic sets rely on the principle of quantification of the qualitative aspects and degree of contradiction is also the distinguishing feature of Plithogenic sets. newlineIn the present study, FCM model with trapezoidal fuzzy number as weights of inter relationship between the concepts is proposed. In addition, the concept of Plithogenic sets is incorporated with FCM and proposed a Plithogenic Fuzzy Cognitive Map (PFCM). newline newline