Prediction of Reservoir Inflow with Climate Change Effect

Abstract

The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern hemisphere. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.70 C from 1900 to 2000. Climate change is defined as The difference between long term mean values of a climate parameter, where the mean is taken over a specified interval of time usually several decades (IPCC 2007). The main cause of climate change is global warming. Global warming is caused because of increase in concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (Greenhouse gases) due to human activities such as industrialization, deforestation, and burning fossil fuels. The impact of climate change is over the many fields like agricultural, medical, economical, water resources, and others. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), water scarcity has been expected in the future in various seasons, changes in the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation, rise in sea level are the main effects of climate change on water resources (IPCC 2014). Many studies identified that due to temperature rise, changes have been observed in rainfall and streamflow quantity and pattern. newlineFrom the literature and analysis of rainfall data for 131 years, it is observed that no clear role of global warming in the variability of monsoon rainfall over India (Mall et al., 2006). Even though the above finding insists that no impact of considering climate parameters for India, but it is worthwhile to consider the climate parameters to quantify the potential adverse impacts on water resources that may occur in future periods. This thesis aims to study the impact of climate change on the inflow to the Ujjani reservoir. In this study, the proposed methodology for inflow forecasting considering the climatic parameters for the surface water reservoir (Ujjani reservoir) consists of precipitation forecasting based on the climate model (GCM) and the reservoir inflow forecasting model. Assess