Development of Discharge Prediction Model Using Rainfall Runoff Simulation for Shipra River Basin of Madhya Pradesh India

Abstract

The objective of the present study is to simulate runoff in the region of Shipra river watershed through the application of the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System. In this study, land use map and soil map has been used to prepare the curve number map. Curve number map and precipitation data is used as inputs for HEC-HMS model setup. The hydrological soil groups generated in the GIS environment have identified two soil groups that exist in the study area, namely group C and group D. Using DEM and stream network, the Kshipra river catchment has been divided into 22 watersheds. For each sub-watershed, the SCS-CN model was used to estimate run-off. According to the flood potential analysis, subwatershed no. 19 has the greatest flood potential, while sub-watershed no. 7 has the least. Forty years rainfall data from 1980-2020 has been used for run-off calculation for 22 sub- basin. The relationship was fitted through 2nd order polynomial between rainfall and runoff for all 22 sub-basin and a high correlation was observed (R2 = 0.99). The flood potential analysis in the shipra river basin tributary demonstrates that the SCS-CN method can be used to predict run-off in poorly gauged watersheds utilising hydrological parameters acquired from remote sensing and GIS data After calibration and validation of the hydrological model, it is concluded that the simulated peak discharges were found to be extremely close to the observed values. The determination coefficient R2 value comes out as 0.783, reveals that the hydrological model results are satisfactory and accepted for simulation of rainfall-runoff processes. Intensity- Duration- Frequency (I-D-F) curves for 2, 5, 10 and 25-years of return period were created for Shipra river basin. From this curve, the maximum intensity of precipitation for 25-year return period is found to be 250 mm/day. Floods in the Shipra river basin, which covers 5661.24 sq.km, occurred on a regular basis in 1990, 1995, 2004, 2006, and 2012.