Relationship between Climate Change Green House Gas Emissions and Productivity of Major Food Crops in India Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The Greenhouse gas emissions had adversely affected the climate. Climate changehad negatively affected the yield of agriculture such as paddy, wheat, maize andSorghum(Venkateshwarlu (2017). The decline in the production and productivity ofagriculture due to climate change was expected to reduce the farmers income by 4.3 percentand 4.1 percent during khariff and rabi seasons in 2016. The projected demand for foodgrains in India to feed the growing population would be 333 million tonnes in 2050. Theactual food grains production in India was only 291 million tonnes in 2019. It showed thegap between the availability and demand for food grains production in India in future. In thisback drop, many studies (NirajPrakash et al, 2011, Louml,et al 2015, Gupta et al 2016,Joshi, Shobha,2016, Poudel and Rajib,2016, Maidual,2016) were attempted to assess theeconomic impact of climate change on agriculture in India . Limited studies (Joshi, NirajPrakash et al, 2011,ShobhaPoudel and Rajib,2016,) had assessed the impact of climatechange on individual food crops at macro level. They concentrated only on the short runrelationship . Limited studies (Gupta et al 2016, Maidual,2016,) analysed the long runrelationship between climatic factors and productivity of major food crops and tested thestationary of the variables in the long run relationship. In the present study, to fulfil theabove research gap, the selected climatic factors and productivity of food crops were testedfor stationary. The co integration analysis and vector error correction models were specifiedto assess the long run and short run relationship between climatic factors and productivity ofmajor food crops in India for the period 1970-2016, as they were the suitable models.The climatic factors and the yield of all food crops had exhibited co integration longrun relationship in the study period. The carbon emission positively influenced theproductivity paddy, wheat, jowar,bajra and total food crops while it had negative relationshipwith pulses in the long run.