Modeling the impact of climate change on water resources in the Gomti river basin India

Abstract

The present study has been carried out to study the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Gomti river basin The future variations of hydrometeorological components of the basin have been evaluated through the combination of hydrological models of SWAT and Visual MODFLOW under RCP 45 and RCP 85 scenarios The Gomti river basin is located in the state of Uttar Pradesh and covers about 992342 sq km area up to the G and D site at Lucknow The average annual maximum temperature of the basin during 2002 to 2013 Groundwater levels have been evaluated using the 381 observation wells data from 1996 to 2015 out of which 248 are located within the basin boundary and the remaining observation wells were adjacent to the basin boundary The overall change of the groundwater table indicates depletion in the basin Hydrogeology and aquifer features were analysed using 47 bore log data and their lithological stratigraphy MIROCESM MIROCESMCHEM MIROC MIROC5 and MOHC HADGEM2 ES Global Climate Models GCMs were applied in the calibrated SWAT model to assess the influence of climate change on hydrometeorological components After applying the scenarios the following trends were observed the temperature is rising under RCP 45 and 85 Evapotranspiration is increasing under both RCP scenarios Groundwater has been modelled using Visual MODFLOW The GCM models projected that the groundwater table of the twenty four observations wells in the Gomti river basin is declining as compared to the base period 2002 to 2013 for both the RCP scenarios 45 and 85 Future groundwater table is decline due to future low rainfall low recharge and excessive groundwater withdrawal in the basin The findings of the current study serve as an advanced study for future reference in the context of the influence of climate change on water resources in the Gomti river newline