Prediction of electricity consumption and emission for india till 2050 using various forecasting techniques

Abstract

India, one of the fastest developing countries in the world needs dominant energy resources for industrialisation which is currently dependant heavily on conventional resources and renewable sources are catching up. This makes energy forecasting and planning mandatory. In predicting the energy demand of a country, the role of Total Electricity Consumption (TEC) forecasting plays a significant role. Indian Power Sector has grown significantly since independence, both in terms of Installed Capacity and Transmission and Distribution (TandD) system. The total power production capacity (utilities and non utilities) has increased from a meager 1,362 MW in 1947 to 399 GW at the end of the first quarter of 2018. The Electricity Consumption per capita, which was a mere 16.3 units in 1947, has increased to 1,149 units in 2017-18. In the last three years, the shortages have reduced substantially. The Government of India has launched the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) Scheme for the monetary turnaround of the State Distribution Utilities. The current research is carried out with the objective to identify and understand the current energy scenario of India and to review the different types of energy forecasting methods and energy planning strategies. The prediction of the energy demand for 2050 in terms electricity consumption for various sectors such as agriculture, domestic, commercial, industrial, power, transportation along with its emissions are carried out. newline