Development of Time series Models for Forecasting of Prices and Arrivals of Black pepper in Karnataka

Abstract

Indian agriculture is characterized by risks and uncertainties in the production and high volatility in the prices of agricultural commodities. Most often, in spite of good production, farmers are making loss due to low prices. In the same way, many times the consumers are paying exorbitant prices. Forecasting prices and arrivals of agricultural commodities is of utmost importance for planning in advance to resist any abnormalities, so forecast of Black pepper prices and arrivals are intended to be useful for farmers, policy makers, agribusiness industries and assessing market impacts of domestic or international events. Monitoring commodity price can play a major role on the overall macroeconomic performance of a country. In the present era of globalization, management of food security in the agriculture dominated developing countries like India needs efficient and reliable food price forecasting models more than ever. Sparse and time lag in the data availability in developing economies, however, generally necessitate reliance on time series forecasting models newline