Analysis and Modeling of Management of Asset Quality in Public and Private Sector Banks in India

Abstract

The banking system with a high level of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) can act as a serious hindrance in economic growth with valuable capital and resources of the banking system being engaged in the recovery and resolution of NPAs. This study was undertaken to study asset quality and NPA management of banks and to suggest models to assess performance of banks and estimate future NPAs. NPAs of Indian banks assumed alarming proportions particularly since the year 2012. The Public Sector Banks (PSBs) share a disproportionate and increasing burden of NPAs among the bank groups. This divergent trend among bank groups clearly indicates that the ability to manage asset quality across banks varies markedly. newlineIt is observed that there exists significant inverse relationship between NPAs and Contemporaneous Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas GDP with a one, two or three years lag, has a significant positive impact on NPAs. Credit to GDP ratio also had a significant positive impact and factors like Industrial GDP, Index of Industrial Production and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) have significant inverse relationship with NPAs. Other factors studied have insignificant impact. Priority sector advances have significant inverse relationship with NPAs contrary to results of earlier studies. It is also observed that NPAs have a significant negative impact on Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Net Interest Margin (NIM), and significant positive impact on Net Profit, Spread, Cost to Income Ratio, Investments and Provisioning requirement. Analysis based on primary data revealed that diversion of funds and wilful default and poor monitoring and lack of supervision and follow-up are important factors. newlineAn index of NPA management is developed, by following a multidimensional approach to compare the NPA management of banks.