A study on stock price volatility and forecasting using arima model with reference to selected stocks in nse india

Abstract

The share markets in India have created a lure for investing money newlineby the investors. The strategy for earning big money in short time needs a lot newlineof patience. There is no fixed formula for success in the market. newlineThe early stage of the share market was very familiar for average investor. newlineNow the markets are wide enough to invest. There are different markets like newlinebond market, forex market, derivative market and other specialty markets. newlineThe research was conducted to identify the stage of volatility in newlineshare markets. There is a difference between volatility and risk.Volatility refers to extreme price swings, whereas the risk is the possibility of the market from peaks to troughs. There research was conducted to indentify the risk and return level of selected companies to make the investor in the newlinesafer stage. There are various investment avenues for the people to invest newlineamong that share market is one of the renowned investment avenue. When the newlineinvestor needs to earn more profit, the risk associated with that profit is also newlinehigh. Before investing the investor should have knowledge over the newlineperceptiveness of the companies and forecasting techniques. In this concept the research was conducted by taking top sectors from the National Stock Exchange. Each sector comprises of five companies newlinebased on the Weightage value. The study was conducted with different sectors newlinelike, IT sector, Automobile sector, Banking sector, Pharmaceutical sector and newlineFMCG sector. The Information Technology sector is expected to grow by newline9.5% to US$300 billion by the year 2020. The market of IT sector is more newlinecompetitive because of top five IT firms contribution towards total industry newlinerevenue. newline newline