A Study of Climate Change Impacting Agrarian Economy in Western Himalayas

Abstract

India in true picture represents an agrarian economy as agriculture and allied sector plays an influential role in the country s development by providing livelihood options to more than half of its population and contributes around 17.3 per cent to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. The growth of agriculture and allied sector is witnessing a prolonged period of severe crisis and couldn t be able to achieve its target of 4 per cent growth since last two decades. Recently, climate change has emerged as a global issue and India is likely to be more seriously affected because of the dependence of its large population on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture for the livelihood. Therefore, the present study was conducted in the state of Himachal Pradesh mainly to identify one of the most affected districts based on long term changes in climate variables and available studies in Himachal Pradesh; to analyse the impact of changes in climatic conditions on cropping patterns, livestock composition, crop-livestock productivity, insect-pest and diseases, the affordability of cost of adaptation, returns and livelihood of the farmers in the selected district; to document and validate the adaptation measures for the affected district and screening of the available crop-livestock concerning technologies and to suggest suitable changes in the agricultural research agenda and policy measures in combating the adverse effect of climate change. The study was based on both primary and secondary data. Various mathematical, statistical and econometric tools such as averages, ratios, percentages, functional techniques, non parametric and parametric tests, etc. were extensively used for the analysis of data. District Mandi showed the highest vulnerability in terms of index value of 0.535 and 0.532. Markov chain analysis revealed that the area under paddy, maize, wheat, barley and finger millet crops have decreased whereas the area under pulses, vegetables, oilseeds, fodder crops and fallow land have increased over last decade. In addition the prevalence of insect-pests and diseases were found to be increased over this decade. As far as the disease and parasite infestation on livestock is concerned, it was observed that the problem of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) has significantly decreased while proportion of common parasites (ticks, mites, lice and flea) incidence has significantly increased among cows and bullocks. The results of the regression analysis revealed that the climatic factors has positively impacted the production of most of the crops except for significant negative impact in maize (-0.4097) crop. The Benefit: Cost ratio for expected profits over cost incurred on adaptation strategies were 7.22, 1.94 and 1.75 in zone I, zone II and zone III respectively showing an expected profit to the tune of Rs 7.22, Rs 1.94 and Rs 1.75 of per rupee invested in following adaptation strategies. The inter-correlation between adaptation measures and socio-economic characteristics showed that the adaptation measures in crop production were significantly correlated with qualification of the head of the family, total land holding, irrigated cultivated land, total area under vegetables and gross returns from crop production. As far as adaptation strategies in livestock are concerned, these were found to be significantly correlated with literacy of family members, number of milch animals and gross returns from livestock showing that livestock adaptation is likely to increase with increase in gross returns and their number possessed. The awareness with respect to symptoms of climate change was reported by 49 per cent of the farmers. As many as 47 per cent of farmers could explain about the impact and causes of climate change and 37 per cent of the farmers could reveal about the climate change adaptation strategies. The awareness about climate change as well as its adaptation was more in Zone I (60 % on all farms) as compared to other high elevation zones viz. zone II and zone III of the study area. The policy recommends promotion of high yielding cultivars especially in maize crop, availability of increased area under food grains, optimum livestock and proper strategies for crop diversification planning in the study area. Irrigation water infrastructure needs to be strengthened. Besides, creation of better rural infrastructure and institutional facilities in the high altitude areas need to be developed. newline