Power system reliability performance improvement using scada short term load forecasting and successful path method for substation configuration studies

Abstract

The loss of power supply to the consumers can be reduced by focusing newlineon the two major areas of concern in the power system These areas are newlineclassified as the short term load forecasting centric and sub station newlineconfiguration centric The major focus in this dissertation is to develop a new newlineapproach for the short term load forecasting using Supervisory Control and newlineData Acquisition SCADA system to improve the load forecast A hybrid newlinealgorithm is developed by investigating statistical correlation between newlinehistorical and the present day actual demand The present day initial demand newlineforecast is arrived by estimating the maximum and the minimum weather newlinebased demand profile of the last twenty five months The forecasting newlineminimum and maximum demands are user point which depends on weather newlinespecific historical demand and also the power transactions taking place with newlinethe available generation capacity for the day Thus, it has facilitated in newlinematching the estimated demand with the actual demand The correlation newlinecoefficient is calculated and its probable error in forecasting are estimated newlinewhich are satisfactory newline newline