Development of a statistical cyclone intensity prediction model for the bay of bengal region

Abstract

The present study puts forth an integrated statistically developed model for forecasting of intensity of cyclones originating in Bay of Bengal BoB at different prediction intervals Prediction of Tropical Cyclones TC is very important for mankind as these forecasts permit undertaking preventive steps in risk mitigation initiatives of various national and governmental bodies which otherwise is known to cause huge loss to life livelihood and property The study in its detail emphasizes the need on two points viz Nonavailability of a statistically simple yet sound increasingly accurate cyclone intensity prediction model for the BoB region The model so developed should be amenable to development of a more dynamic algorithm going forward Though numerous factors viz sea surface temperature tropical cyclone heat potential coriolis force vertical wind shear vorticity divergence relative humidity storm motion speed initial storm intensity etc are responsible for cyclogenesis formation of cyclone yet few have been found to be predictive factors in forecasting the intensity of a cyclone