Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10603/8179
Title: Electricity demand forecasting and market allocation for energy sources in India
Researcher: Subhash Mallah
Guide(s): Bansa, N K
Keywords: Infrastructure Technology
Upload Date: 18-Apr-2013
University: Shri Mata Vaishno Devi University
Completed Date: 2009
Abstract: Indian electrical energy scenario is characterized by a peak power shortage of 25.4% with an all India average of 11.7% and the energy shortage up to 20% with an all India average of 7.4%.Due to higher growth of Indian economy, it will be essential to add to our present electrical power generation capacity not only to overcome the demand supply gap, but to provide enough electricity to various sectors of economy. The dominant energy source for electrical power generation, in India, is coal followed by large hydro, gas, renewable and nuclear. Rapid use of coal is prohibited by associated Green House Gas emissions and other aspects of environmental pollution. There is a need for an extremely indigenous use of energy sources for future electricity generation. This requires forecasting of future demand with reasonable accuracy and optimized allocation of energy sources to meet future demand for electrical energy. A mixed model of time series and econometric model has been developed to forecast the electricity requirement up to the year 2045. First, the independent variables i.e. various component of GDP s (Agriculture, Industry and Service), number of consumers in various economic sectors and price indices of electricity have been forecasted by using autoregressive time series method. After that, a logarithmic linear econometric model has been developed to forecast electricity requirement in various sectors of economy up to the year 2045.SPSS 14.0 software has been used to forecast the variables. The results show a gap of 70% between demand and supply in the year 2045 for business as usual scenario (BAU). Energy conservation is a holistic approach to reduce energy demand. A very large amount of energy can be saved by energy conservation as estimated by Bureau of Energy Efficiency and Power Ministry of India. In this work, various scenarios have been developed for energy conservation.
Pagination: xix, 172p.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10603/8179
Appears in Departments:School of Infrastructure Technology and Resource Management

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02_certificate.pdf26.98 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
03_acknowledgement.pdf27 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
04_abstract.pdf81.08 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
05_contents.pdf47.4 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
06_list of figures.pdf47.67 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
07_list of tables.pdf42.38 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
08_chapter 01.pdf218.17 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
09_chapter 02.pdf664.17 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
10_chapter 03.pdf911.58 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
11_chapter 04.pdf948.89 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
12_chapter 05.pdf457.23 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
13_chapter 06.pdf681.17 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
14_chapter 07.pdf619.8 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
15_chapter 08.pdf725.45 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
16_chapter 09.pdf651.65 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
17_chapter 10.pdf204.92 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


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