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Title: Mathematical and Statistical Tools for Location Specific Weather Forecast in Medium Range up to 5 days using Numerical Weather Prediction NWP Model Output
Researcher: Ashok Kumar
Guide(s): Rashmi Bhardwaj
University: Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University
Completed Date: 2009
Abstract: The main theme of the thesis is: quot Mathematical and Statistical tools for location specific weather forecast in medium range (up to 5-days) using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputquot. First of all a brief description of need for forecasting weather in medium range, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and interpretation and calibration techniques for getting the location specific forecast is given in the introductory chapter. The significance of the problem to the society and country is also explained. Forecasting in medium range (3-5 days) requires the use of meteorological data from all over the globe to capture the movement and genesis of weather systems in medium range. This data is used in the operational NWP models. To run the operational models super computers are used. To obtain the forecast in medium range (3-5days), the global NWP models termed as general circulation models (GCM) are used. The surface weather parameters like rainfall and Maximum/Minimum temperatures are the basic crucial parameters required for planning and applications in different sectors. The forecasts from the operational general circulation models (GCM) for these weather parameters does not show good skill when obtained for a specific location. Whatever is the skill attained, these forecasts needs to be interpreted and calibrated in order to have a desirably high skill , so as to give higher confidence to the users for using the location specific forecasts for planning and application activities. The interpretation and calibration techniques uses the basic mathematical and statistical tools like step wise linear regression and Kalman filter.
Appears in Departments:University School of Basic and Applied Sciences

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
01 title page.pdfAttached File2.72 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
02 contents.pdf696.69 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
03 list of figures.pdf2.3 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
04 list of tables.pdf1.95 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
05 list of abbreviations.pdf918.63 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
06 chapter-1.pdf17.87 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
07 chapter-1.1.pdf4.09 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
08 chapter-2.pdf8.82 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
09 chapter-2.1.pdf13.38 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
10 chapter-3.pdf9.7 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
11 chapter-4.pdf9.23 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
13 chapter-6.pdf5.32 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
14 chapter-6.1.pdf5.13 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
15 chapter-6.2.pdf14.18 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
16 references bio-data.pdf5.89 MBAdobe PDFView/Open

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